THT Extra: Chinks in the Armor
April 19, 2010
Let's take one last look at some "versus draftee" stats. While Jeff's Hardball Times article last week showed data indicating that the "versus draftee" split has no unique predictive value, it's still fun to look at. And hey, maybe it will turn out to be predictive of certain players maxing out their potential at a certain level.
As in last week's "THT Extra" post, we'll focus on strikeouts per nine innings, and look a bit further back, to the 2007 and 2008 college seasons. Whether performance against draftees is a valuable tool or just a toy, we hope you find these interesting.
(In each table, "BF" is draftee batters faced; "Total" is K/9 for the entire season, and "vDraft" is K/9 against draftees. "Diff" is the percent difference.)
2008:
Player School BF Total vDraft Diff Greg Martin North Carolina Greensboro 120 5.1 1.6 -69% Steve Blevins Marshall 120 7.1 3.1 -56% Micah Spencer Indiana State 129 3.7 2.0 -46% Jared Ray Houston 163 7.0 3.9 -44% Victor Black Dallas Baptist 117 7.2 4.3 -41% Tyler Blandford Oklahoma State 122 7.6 4.6 -39% Stephen Dodson Georgia 180 4.7 3.0 -38% Nathan Newman Pepperdine 109 6.3 4.0 -37% Brandon Burke Fresno State 107 5.1 3.2 -37% Stephen Smith New Mexico 111 7.2 4.7 -35% Mike Obradovich Florida Atlantic 100 5.9 3.9 -34% Bryce Stowell UC Irvine 111 9.8 6.6 -33% Ryan Stobart Penn State 100 4.9 3.3 -33% Jake Laber North Dakota State 103 7.3 5.0 -32% Heath Goin New Mexico State 118 5.0 3.5 -29% Aaron Brady Utah Valley State 117 3.9 2.8 -28% Dan Straily Marshall 109 6.3 4.6 -28% Drew Murray Georgia Southern 101 8.0 6.0 -25% Charlie Mellies Wake Forest 141 6.8 5.1 -25% Jeffrey Inman Stanford 161 5.6 4.2 -25%
And 2007:
Player School BF Total vDraft Diff Josh Monroe Gonzaga 115 4.8 1.5 -69% Brandon Langston East Tennessee State 105 5.9 3.0 -49% Ryan Bergh Old Dominion 108 6.2 3.5 -44% Matt Gardner Jacksonville 127 4.7 2.7 -41% Ryan O'Shea New Orleans 117 5.3 3.1 -41% Alex Hassan Duke 115 5.6 3.4 -40% Corey Pollizano Florida International 109 8.0 4.9 -38% Will Stroup Alabama 143 5.9 3.6 -38% Jason Neitz East Carolina 108 6.5 4.2 -35% Eryk McConnell North Carolina State 106 6.0 3.9 -35% Jason Dufloth San Francisco 130 4.4 2.9 -35% Tyler Truxell William And Mary 102 3.9 2.6 -35% Corey Young Seton Hall 100 6.8 4.5 -34% Dan Merklinger Seton Hall 125 9.2 6.1 -33% Cliff Springston Baylor 128 5.8 3.9 -33% Dusty Odenbach Connecticut 105 5.2 3.5 -33% Pat Cassa UC Riverside 141 6.0 4.0 -32% Rob Brant Pittsburgh 127 8.2 5.6 -32% Scott McGregor Memphis 129 4.4 3.0 -32% JJ Pannell George Mason 100 5.8 3.9 -32%
In another year or two, we'll revisit the analysis to see if some value can be gleaned from performance against top-flight competition in college.