THT Extra: More Unprospecting
April 02, 2010
This morning, Jeff published an in-depth article at The Hardball Times called "Mano a mano." It breaks down the performances of college players by whether they are facing draft-worthy players.
College prospects generally have the opportunity to "pad" their numbers against lesser opponents. The goal of this project is to get a better grip on how these prospects will perform in the pros, when nearly every opponent is a good player, not just one out of three pitchers or the top half of the lineup.
In the article, one of the tables shows the players in 2009 who did the most padding against lesser opponents. Anthony Rendon, for instance, OPS'd 1.165 last year, but in 61 PAs against drafted pitchers, he managed only .765.
Here's a similar list for 2008. These are the guys who posted superficially strong offensive numbers, but struggled against tough opponents.
("PA vs Dr" and "OPS vs Dr" are stats versus draftees. "OPS" is OPS against everybody. The cutoff is 80 PAs against draftees, which gives us a sample of about 370 hitters.)
Player School PA vs Dr OPS vs Dr OPS Diff Nick Jowers Maryland 80 0.525 0.844 -38% Beamer Weems Baylor 114 0.499 0.796 -37% Barry Butera Boston College 88 0.539 0.837 -36% Shea Vucinich Washington State 90 0.514 0.796 -35% Eric Thames Pepperdine 85 0.843 1.285 -34% Derek Helenihi Louisiana State 112 0.505 0.761 -34% Kurt Wideman Pacific 88 0.528 0.790 -33% Harrison Eldridge East Carolina 95 0.658 0.974 -32% Fuller Smith Mississippi 106 0.613 0.905 -32% Jake Opitz Nebraska 101 0.687 1.012 -32% Ben Carruthers Texas Christian 96 0.547 0.797 -31% Dan Grovatt Virginia 87 0.581 0.839 -31% Hector Rabago USC 103 0.529 0.760 -30% Preston Clark Texas 104 0.616 0.883 -30% Chris Wade Kentucky 88 0.569 0.812 -30% Zach Jones Stanford 106 0.484 0.690 -30% Michael Brady California 94 0.493 0.700 -30% Logan Gelbrich San Diego 86 0.572 0.811 -29% Jason Nappi Mississippi State 101 0.586 0.825 -29% J.T. Wise Oklahoma 106 0.570 0.796 -28%
A number of those guys have gone on to professional careers, but you're not exactly looking at a minor league top-prospect list, are you?
Indeed, if we look at the other end of the list, the player who excelled the most against drafted pitchers (relative to his season OPS) is Dusty Coleman. Coleman hasn't lit the minor leagues on fire, but he has held his own. Also near the other end of the list are Yonder Alonso (1.444 OPS against draftees!) and 2010 prospect Micah Gibbs.
Now, there are some solid players on the "bad" end of this list, including Ike Davis (.913 OPS vs. draftees; 1.172 overall) and Luke Murton (.849 vs. draftees; 1.014 overall). Keep in mind that a large difference isn't itself a bad thing--Davis's .913 OPS vs. draftees is a solid mark by any standard. The difference just tells us that Davis might not have been quite as good as the 1.172 overall OPS suggested.
For fans of statistical oddities, I give you three top prospects: Pedro Alvarez, Jemile Weeks, and Jason Castro. What do they have in common? A difference of one percent or less. It didn't matter who those guys faced--they just mashed.