Draft Q&A with Kevin Goldstein
May 11, 2010
Kevin Goldstein is the National Writer, Scouting and Player Development, for Baseball Prospectus and ESPN.com. He's also a friend to College Splits, and just a downright cool guy. We thank him for taking some time to chat.
College Splits: When the rumor-jockeying begins in earnest before the draft, how much of what you hear do you actually believe?
Kevin Goldstein: Depends on who you are talking to, you know? You do this for long enough and you start tracking stuff. I have a few people where honestly I'll believe everything they say, because they've truly nailed some stuff that I had no idea about at the time. But you always have to be careful. Even the pure speculation and rumor-mongering has value though -- it indicates general trends and guys moving up and down. Some teams are very difficult and play it very close to the vest, others I have a better relationship and get a better read on. Agents are great sources of information, but at times, only about other players and what teams are thinking -- they usually tend to think their own guys are going to go higher than they actually do, but that's their job and I don't hold it against them.
CS: How adept are front offices and agents at leveraging the media to disseminate information they want to see out there?
KG: Well, I just talked about agents, and they definitely work hard to pump their guys up the charts, but I've never seen it actually work. I can't think of a situation where simply an agent trying to push a guy got him moved up. Front offices tend to do the opposite, and keep things very secretive. We have a bit of a different situation at the very top over the last two years, where the Nationals starts working early to sell the fans on the qualities of guys like Strasburg and now Harper, who they're giving record money to.
CS: What do you make of rumors that the Nationals are looking to hire CSN head coach Tim Chambers? More generally, what's your sense of the interaction between scouts, coaches, and agents?
KG: That story had legs for a bit, but now it's died down a bit. It kind of reminded me of the mid-80s when Danny Manning, then the top high school basketball player in the country, went to Kansas, and the team hired his father, who was a truck driver, to be an assistant coach. In fairness this situation is a bit different, as Chambers does have a history with Roy Clark, so it wouldn't be totally out of the blue. But there is a lot of under-the-table talk and work between all three -- agents, scouts, coaches. I know a scout the other day who asked a coach to get a reliever in the game he was at because he wanted another look, and he got in. Admittedly, the game was in a situation where it wouldn't affect anything, but it happens.
CS: Who sends you the most entertaining complaints: player parents, agents, or MLB teams' minor league fans?
KG: I tend to find that people in the business (agent, teams) don't really complain much. They'll let you know when they disagree with something you write, but it's always kept very professional, and I've never had team or an agent hold something against me for an extended period of time. Parents and fans are a different story, because they often lead with their heart, not their head. I've gotten borderline insane e-mail from parents, including one that accused me of being a reverse racist who pushed black and Latino players up on my list ahead of white players -- that was entertaining.
CS: JuCo prospects are barely out of high school, but they (usually) face more consistently challenging competition. In what ways do you look at a JuCo guy, as if he were a high schooler? Like a college junior?
KG: Well, exactly like it sounds, I treat them like something in between. Like you say, they are facing much stronger, or at least consistent competition in JuCo play, but obviously it's not the same as big time Division I baseball. They are their own category for sure.
CS: You've previously said that one of biggest things holding up draft boards this year was the fact that Bryce Harper's adviser Scott Boras had yet to give teams an idea of the type of bonus he'd be asking for. Now that a figure has been floated by none other than Jon Heyman, do you expect the top of the draft to take shape more quickly?
KG: Well, I wrote that before Harper had the downright amazing year that he is having. No matter what anyone thinks about Harper or how unsure one can be about the money side of things, his performance on the field has made it impossible to take anyone else at No. 1.
CS: Your role as the draft approaches is both that of a reporter and an analyst. Where's the real thrill lie for you: Would you rather scoop that one great news story, or identify for your readers that one player out there that nobody else is hyping and see him turn into a star?
KG: Definitely the latter. That's my job, at least the way I see it ultimately. To tell the readers what a guy can be. Scoops are nice, but temporary. Finding a guy lasts forever.
CS: What's the interaction between the player development and scouting folks before the draft? Are scouts at all looking for a type of player who's perhaps particularly well-suited to the club's player development philosophy, or is it just as simple as taking the proverbial Best Player Available?
KG: Early on, at least the first ten rounds or so, you are looking for the best player available period. However, defining what "best player available" means often involves the entire baseball operations group, so they're involved, just maybe not directly. Once you get to those late picks, it's very player development focused. Sometimes teams just take a guy because they need a second baseman on their New York-Penn League team.
CS: The Rays have done a great job in recent years turning mid-round picks into high-quality minor leaguers (Desmond Jennings and Matt Moore, to name a few from your most recent Top 11). Generally speaking, when a team has that kind of success, to what extent is that a credit to the scouting department, and to what extent is that testimony to the player development folks?
KG: It's probably my bias, but I'd give the overwhelming credit to the scouts. Without the raw materials in place, you can't make a star. That might not be an absolute, but it's certainly true in a general sense.
CS: OK, Mr. King of Upside. Give us some of your personal favorites for the draft this year.
KG: You know me, I love tools, and this draft is not exactly loaded with them. One of my personal favorites is Ohio U. outfielder Gauntlett Eldemire. Crazy tools, a lot of rawness, could be a steal.