The Senior Circuit: CF Brian Heere
May 07, 2010
Meet University of Kansas outfielder Brian Heere, the Franklin Gutierrez of The Plains.
The first thing you'll notice is that he is not, in fact, a bona fide college senior, as this blog series title suggests. You're right, you got us. He is, in fact, a red shirt junior. Which is to say, he's pretty much a senior, which is good enough for us. He's old, anyway.
Heere was drafted in the 48th round last year by the Red Sox, but chose instead to return to college. That decision has proven to be excellent news for the Jayhawks this season, and terrible, terrible news for any batter in the Big 12 who chooses to hit the ball in the air. But more on that later.
Kudos to the Red Sox scout who filed the report on Heere--at this time last year, there wasn't a whole lot to go on. He was a bench player in '08, and spent that summer playing for the Kitsap Blue Jackets, about as out of the way as you can be. But as we'll see, Heere's a legitimate talent.
In the words of cliche-loving sportscasters everywhere, "Let's go to the highlights!"
Offense
2009: 357/457/521
2010: 398/472/536
Looks good. Good command of the strike zone. More than holding his own in the very competitive Big 12.
Baserunning
Now that we've got baserunning numbers, you better believe we're going to show them off at every opportunity.
2009: +3 runs (including only 2 GDPs all season)
2010: +3 runs (including 6 steals in 6 attempts)
(For reference, +3 on the bases is roughly the 95th percentile of D-1 players. Only a couple hundred players each year were better, most only by percentage points.)
He's also fast. Maybe even smart. We like this guy more with every spreadsheet we open.
Defense
Great Googly Moogly!
2009: +6 plays in right field
2010: +8 plays in center field (through May 1)
These numbers are heavily regressed. (If we showed you the unregressed numbers, you wouldn't believe them.) In theory, they reflect something close to his true talent level. If so, he is an absolutely ungodly defensive outfielder. He's certainly been more effective than any other D-1 center fielder this year.
Every play above average in the outfield is worth close to one run, and he's playing a 50 or 60 game season. If he kept up anything close to this level for a full pro season, he'd be among the best defenders in the sport.
That sounds like hyperbole, and maybe it is. But anecdotally, it seems that the average quality of defense in D-1 is comparable to, if not better than, that of the low minors. And Sean Smith's research suggests that the average center fielder in the low minors is about as good as the average guy in the majors.
Pretty good for a guy you'd never heard of, huh? Something tells us Heere will be gone before the 48th round this year. And the team that picks him will end up mighty happy about it.